The sustainable management of the coastal zone requires routine monitoring and assessment of the status of the ecosystem "coastal zone". To obtain an efficient and cost-effective system, "intelligent" observational strategies combined with an analysis software encoding our present knowledge about the dynamics of the considered system are needed. This software determines the informational value of actual observations, combines all observations with previous forecasts and returns a best guess of the detailed present space-time state.

PIONEER will set up analysis systems for routine day-to-day monitoring, analysis and short-term prediction of nutrient distributions in the Odra and Ebro estuaries. The project integrates presently available technology and methodology in data management, geostatistical and dynamical data assimilation and numerical modelling in co-operation between scientific institutions, management authorities and commercial companies.

The overall approach of PIONEER parallels the analysis in weather forecasting. Point observations together with a "best guess" are processed in a data assimilation scheme. Since data assimilation with respect to nutrients is a new application three schemes of increasing complexity will be explored: simple spatial interpolation, geostatistics and dynamical data assimilation. As a by-product, the project will offer estimates of the predictability of the estuarine ecosystems on time scales of days and weeks.

The systems developed by PIONEER include:

• state-of-the-art data assimilation schemes to determine the actual spatial and temporal distribution of nutrients and parameters such as suspended sediment concentrations and phytoplankton biomass.

• dynamical models to forecast temporal and spatial evolution of nutrient concentrations and phytoplankton biomass for several days and weeks.

• data management systems for long-term storage and fast exchange.

The application of the methodologies and future steps towards an operational mode of the forecasting system will be discussed with the responsibles from politics, coastal zone management and tourism organisations in regional meetings. The project is a significant contribution to EuroGOOS that has strong emphasis in creating cost efficient operational forecasting tools.

The main objective of PIONEER is the development of techniques for the day-to-day monitoring, analysis and short-term prediction of nutrient and related suspended matter distributions in estuaries. Such systems are expected to be routinely operated by management authorities as well as commercial companies in the future.

To reach the above mentioned objective the following scientific and technical goals are pursued:

1. a series of analysis schemes of different complexity for the determination of the actual spatial and temporal distribution of nutrients and closely related parameters such as suspended sediment concentrations and phytoplankton biomass,

2. dynamical models to forecast the temporal and spatial evolution of nutrient concentrations and phytoplankton biomass for several days and weeks,

3. data management systems for long-term storage and fast exchange.

The system will be tested with historical data sets from the Odra lagoon, the estuaries of the Odra at the German-Polish border and the Ebro in northern Spain; only in case of nutrient in the Ebro estuary, PIONEER will be engaged in data sampling. These three cases have been chosen because of their different hydrological regimes and the availability of detailed data. The methodologies developed in PIONEER are transferable to other estuarine areas in Europe and world-wide.

The scientific methodology of PIONEER resembles the approach of weather forecasting. The actual point observations together with a "best guess" independent of the actual data are brought together in a data assimilation scheme which results in a space-time analysis of the system dynamically consistent with the data, the guess and the assumed dynamics of the system. This analysis, then, may be used as an initial state for a forecast. The forecast for the next observational time usually forms the above mentioned "best guess".

This concept has hardly been used for coastal zone applications. PIONEER combines available technology in data handling, geostatistics and dynamical data assimilation techniques, and dynamical forecasts and applies these to nutrient distributions. The skills and potentials of the system will be assessed for test cases of several week length to simulate "real-time" operational conditions. A hierarchy of analysis techniques, ranging form simple spatial interpolation to state-of-the-art full-fledged dynamical assimilation will be tested and compared in terms of efficiency and skill.

The PIONEER project is organised in two main phases. In phase 1 (task 100- task 300) the tools and data to run the operational simulations will be set up. In phase 2 (task 400 - task 600) the developed tools will be applied , tested and then assessed by user groups, such as governmental authorities.

• the integration of existing hydrodynamic, suspended sediment transport and nutrient dynamics models into coupled models which are calibrated to the Odra and Ebro estuarine regions. The Odra region is subdivided into the Odra river and the Odra lagoon.

• the set-up of the data assimilation methods.

• Activity 110: Setup of the combined/coupled dynamical models for the three areas

• Activity 111: Setup of the hydrodynamic/transport models for the three areas

• Activity 112: Setup of the suspended sediment transport module for the three areas

• Activity 113: Setup of nutrient dynamics model for the three areas

• Activity 114: Coupling of the nutrient model with the hydrodynamic/transport models

• Activity 120: Setup of ‘simple’ data assimilation tools

• Activity 121: Setup of geostatistical multivariate data assimilation methods.

• Activity 122: Setup of geodynamical data assimilation methods

To combine meteorological, hydrographical, and water quality parameters for operational forecasting a data base will be set up and made available for all partners via WWW. The data base comprises historical field data and field data measured during the project period. In addition the model data will be stored in the same data base.

• Activity 210: Setup of data bases for the three areas

• Activity 220: Setup of data exchange via WWW

In PIONEER, two main sets of data will be analysed. Historical data, which are available in all three areas, that will be used to set up and improve the numerical models and assimilation tools. The data gathered during the project will be used to run the operational simulations. Fore each area of application time frames of representative scenarios will be defined to demonstrate the operational simulations. The task is subdivided into two activities.

• Activity 310: Exploiting historical data for model calibration for the three areas

• Activity 320: Preparation of initial values and boundary conditions for the operational simulation of the three areas

The developed analysis and data management tools will be integrated and applied to simulate the selected scenarios defined under task 300.

• Activity 410: Application of data assimilation techniques with increasing complexity for all three areas

• Activity 420: Application of data assimilation techniques in the forecasting phase with increasing complexity for all three areas.

• Activity 430: Documentation of results

The dependencies of the model forecast on data quality and the skill of the assimilation schemes are validated and assessed.

• Activity 510: Quality assessment for data assimilation methods from activity 120 (simple methods)

• Activity 520: Quality assessment for methods from activity 121 (geostatistical methods)

• Activity 530: Quality assessment for data assimilation methods from task 122 (geodynamical methods)

Three symposia combined with the half annual project meetings at the three different demonstration sites will be held in order to involve the potential end users in the developing phase of the pre-operational forecasting tool. In addition the scientific outcome of the project will be documented by presenting the results on international conferences and publishing in scientific journals.

• Activity 610: Dissemination, Involvement of potential end users

• Activity 620: Exploitation, Implementation of pre-operational system

GKSS

• Co-ordinator
• Coupling of models in Odra lagoon
• Development of data assimilation methods
• Data management: Odra lagoon and overall

UPC with associated partner: UPV

• Coupling of models in Ebro Estuary (UPC)
• Application of data assimilation methods (UPC)
• Acquisition of water quality data (UPV)
• Preparation of biochemical parameters for simulation modules (UPV)
• Data base: Ebro (UPC)

IGUC

• Sampling and analysis of water quality data
• Assessment of available and forecasted environmental data sets

VKI with associated partners: DHI and NIOZ

• Design of interface between suspended sediment transport and nutrient module (DHI)

• Creation of interface between suspended sediment transport and nutrient module (VKI)

• Setup of nutrient model for coastal applications (NIOZ)

• Setup of assimilation tools for nutrients (VKI)

IM with associated partner: TU

• Coupling of models in Odra river (IM)
• Development and implementation of sediment transport models in Odra River and Odra lagoon (TU)
• Data base: Odra river and lagoon (IM)
• Application of data assimilation methods (IM)
• Expertise in assessment and validation for the Odra river and Odra lagoon (TU)

NERSC

• Setup and application of data assimilation tools (dynamic methods)

ARMINES

• Setup and application of data assimilation tools (geostatistic methods)

Task 100: Setup of analysis tools

This item is further split into subtasks numbered from 110 to 114 for conventional model coupling and from 120 to 122 for data assimilation techniques.

The tasks describe the work for the respective numbers in the detailed description of tasks in chapter 2.2 of the PIONEER proposal

Milestone M100 Source code of Interface to couple the different models incl. assimilation methods

Links: Required for Task 300 and 400

Activity 110: Setup of the numerical coupling of the dynamical models for hydrodynamic processes (currents and waves) in the three areas.

Taskleader: GKSS

Partners involved: UPC, IM, VKI

Duration: 18 months

Objective: To combine the models developed in activities 111-113 into a functional numerical code (an executable program). The interfacing of a wave model with a model for current and water level to become a coupled model which is calibrated to the Odra river, the Odra lagoon and the Ebro estuarine regions respectively. The atmospheric input has to be linked to the coupled model and to the large scale atmospheric conditions.

Methodology: An interface software module is developed that co-ordinates the numerical interaction of the submodels. For each of the estuaries a functional code will be developed that comprises the physical submodel in the simulation environment, the sediment transport submodel and the nutrient dynamics model.

Deliverables: Source code of the interface

Links: required for Task 300 and 400

Resources: Total (man months): 6 MM

Activity 111: Setup of the hydrodynamic/transport models for the three areas.

Taskleader: IM

Partners involved: GKSS, UPC, VKI

Duration: 18 months

Objective: The extension of an existing numerical model for the physical processes, as developed in Activity 110 into a transport model for interacting dissolved substances. The model will be calibrated for the three demonstration regions.

Methodology: Modification of existing program codes. For the Odra river (area 1).

A 1D hydrodynamic model is used on an operational basis for simulating stages and flows in lower Odra river network for the section from Gozdowice to Trzebiez. This model will be expanded up to the Warta mouth, updated with its geometry and include retention polders and Dabie lake (as 2-D-model). For the Odra lagoon (area 2)

The hydrodynamic and transport modelling of the Odra lagoon will be set up from existing numerical models.

For the Ebro estuarine area, a 3-D model will be set up for current modelling and for transport processes.

Deliverables: Source codes

Links: Required for Task 300 and 400

Resources: Total (man months) 45 MM

Activity 112: Setup of the suspended sediment transport module for the three areas.

Taskleader: UPC

Partners involved: GKSS, IM, VKI

Duration: 18 months

Objective: The extension of a numerical model for dissolved substances, as developed in task 111 into a model for the transport of suspended matter, including settling and resuspension processes.

For the already existing numerical models in the Odra river, the Odra lagoon and the Ebro estuarine plume the algorithms for deposition and resuspension will be compared and, if necessary, improved by including waves, currents and/or biogeochemical coupling processes.

Methodology : Modification of existing program codes.

A recently developed three-dimensional mud transport model will be applied in all three regions to find possible improvements of the existing modules.

Deliverables: Source codes

Links: required for Task 300 and 400

Resources: Total (personal month) 31

Activity 113: Setup of nutrient dynamics model for the three areas.

Taskleader: VKI

Partners involved: GKSS, UPC,IM

Duration: 18 months

Objective: The adaptation of an existing numerical model for nutrient dynamics (ERSEM) to the Odra lagoon and the Ebro estuarine area.

Methodology : Modification of existing source codes. An existing model explicitly describing the cycling of the macronutrients N, P and Si in the water column and the underlying sediments will form the basis of this model.

Deliverables: Source codes.

Links: Required for Task 300 and 400

Resources: Total (man months): 16

Activity 114: Coupling of the nutrient model with the hydrodynamical/transport models

Taskleader: VKI

Partners involved: GKSS, UPC, IM

Duration: 18 months

Objective: Development of the software interfaces for the interaction of different numerical modules.

To link the model concept of ERSEM (e.g. compartments as spatial subareas and time steps on the order of a day) with the model concept of transport processes (e.g. regular grids and smaller time steps).

Methodology : Generation of concepts and program codes.

Construct and run a complex ecosystem model coupled to the existing regional hydrodynamic, wave and transport models; Partner 4 will, as a joint activity with partner 1,2 and 5, implement the coupling of the regional models to the nutrient model.

Deliverables: Description of concepts and source codes.

Links: required for Task 300 and 400

Resources: Total (man months): 35

Activity 120: Setup of ‘simple’ data assimilation tools

Taskleader: ARMINES

Partners involved: NERSC, GKSS

Duration: 12 months

Objective: Prepare the tools to generate parameter fields in space and time for the considered biogeophysical processes by using the numerical model as interpolation tool in space and time between the individual time series at given sensor locations.

Methodology : Improve the calibration parameters of the numerical tools to achieve an optimal fit for the field data from the scenarios selected in task 300. The output of the calibrated models will be used later to achieve a first guess for the parameter fields in space and time in the scenarios selected in task 300. The data to be assimilated are time series of salinity, temperature, and concentrations of nitrogen, ammonium, phosphor, silicate, oxygen, suspended sediment and chlorophyll from the observation stations.

Deliverables: Parameter fields in space and time for the selected scenarios.

Links: required for Task 300 and 400

Resources: Total (man months): 3

Activity 121: Setup of geostatistical multivariate data assimilation methods.

Taskleader: ARMINES

Partners involved: NERSC, GKSS

Duration: 12 months

Objective: Prepare tools to analyse parameter fields in space and time for the considered biogeophysical processes by using multivariate geostatistical techniques.

Methodology : Use correlation in space and time to determine statistical behaviour for the individual time series at the given sensor locations.

Deliverables: Concepts to derive statistical properties from parameter fields in space and time for the selected scenarios.

Links: Required for Task 300 and 400

Resources: Total (man months): 5

Activity 122: Setup of geodynamical data assimilation methods

Taskleader: NERSC

Partners involved: ARMINES

Duration: 12 months

Objective: Preparation of dynamical geostatistical tools to analyse parameter fields in space and time for the considered biogeophysical processes that are consistent with the space-time development of the numerical models.

Methodology : Both weak constraint variational and sequential assimilation methods will be considered and examined, a gradient descent method for the weak constraint problem and a method based on the ensemble Kalman filter and optimal interpolation for the sequential problem. Both the gradient descent and the ensemble Kalman filter have proven to be superior to other traditional data assimilation methods.

Deliverables: Concepts to derive parameter fields in space and time deduced from the field data and the model behaviour in the selected scenarios.

Links: Required for Task 300 and 400

Resources: Total (man months): 12

To combine meteorological, hydrographical, and water quality parameters for operational forecasting three data bases connected with the three demonstration areas will be set up and made available for all partners via WWW. The data bases comprise historical field data and field data measured during the project period. In addition the model data will be stored in the same data base. The task is described in two activities 210 and 220. The tasks describe the work for the respective numbers in the detailed description of tasks in chapter 2.2 of the PIONEER proposal

Milestones: M200A Data base with historical data from the Odra lagoon (GKSS)

M200B Data base with historical data from the Ebro river (UPC)

M200C Data base with historical data from the Odra river (IM)

Links: Required for Task 300 and 400

Activity 210: Setup of data bases for the three areas

Taskleader: UPC

Partners involved: GKSS, IM, VKI, IGUC

Duration: 30 months

Objective: Archiving the data sets in agreed formats.

To make field data in space and time accessible for the operational forecasts for the considered biogeophysical processes.

To store model data for the assessment of different assimilation methods.

Methodology : To gather parameter fields in space and time and store them under an agreed format (e.g. EDMED)in a data bank.

To transform model data into the format of the data bank

Measured (uncorrected and processed) data and final model results (assimilated and forecasted data) will be archived at the computer centres of partners 1, 2 and 5. First, agreed formats and data base structures will be developed. To ensure their long-term usage all data will be sufficiently documented. Here internationally agreed standards (e.g. EDMED, GCMD) will be used. The archive will consist of two components: 1) Data from measurements and the documentation of all data, stored in a relational data base management system; 2) Data fields from model results, stored in file systems using internationally agreed formats. Data safety is guaranteed by the computer centres of partners 1, 2 and 5. At the end of the project all PIONEER data will be saved in a way to be accessible for further management and scientific use. They will be transferred to the data bases of national and international coastal monitoring programs (e.g. Bund Länder MessProgramm BLMP of the German coasts, HELCOM, International Odra Project IOP) and be accessible for other scientific projects if requested. In addition, complete copies will be available on CD-ROM. By these measures the MAST Code on Data Management will be obeyed.

Measured data and final model results would be archived in hydro-meteorological database HIMOS existed at Maritime Research Institute, Szczecin Branch

Deliverables: Parameter fields in space and time deduced from the field data and the model runs in the selected scenarios.

Links: Required for Task 300 and 400

Resources: Total (man months): 10

Activity 220: Setup of data exchange via WWW

Taskleader: GKSS

Partners involved: UPC, IM VKI, IGUC

Duration: 18 months

Objective: To promote easy and fast data exchange between the partners as a prototype for operational applications.

To make parameter fields from the biogeophysical processes in space and time available between project partners and selected external parties.

Methodology : Via WWW-browser the access to archived data will be organised. File transfer will be performed by standard procedures (ftp) of the Internet. Interfaces between data archives and exchange formats will be provided.

Deliverables: Data bases on WWW servers

Links: Necessary for all activities of all subtasks in 400 and 500.

Resources: Total (man months): 4

In task 300 data sets from historical data, which are available in all three areas, will be used to set up and improve the numerical models and assimilation tools.

The data gathered within the project for the different locations will be used to perform the simulation exercises.

In task 300 also the simulated data sets will be prepared for using them in the task 400 and 500.

The task is subdivided into two activities.

The tasks describe the work for the respective numbers in the detailed description of tasks in chapter 2.2 of the PIONEER proposal. The work for the proposal numbers 310 to 321 is described in activity 310 of this Technical Annex. The work for the proposal numbers 322 to 325 is described in activity 320 of this Technical Annex.

Milestone: M300 Selection of representative scenarios

Links: Required for task 400 and 500

Activity 310: Exploiting historical data for model calibration for the three areas.

Taskleader: UPC

Partners involved: GKSS, IM, VKI, IGUC

Duration: 24 months

Objective: To calibrate the model set-ups for the three areas. To provide them with correct behaviour of boundary data.

Methodology : To calibrate the model parameters for the source functions and specific transport processes like turbulent diffusion in the three areas . Determine the settling velocities of suspended particulate matter.

In all three areas combined data sets of hydrographical, meteorological, suspended sediment and nutrient parameters are available.

For the Odra river monitoring is carried out since 1984. At present it consists of 17 stations of continuous water level recording and 7 automatic stations where wind direction and velocity, atmospheric pressure, air temperature, salinity are recorded additionally to the water level. These stations are localised at different points of the whole Odra estuary (both for lower Odra and Odra Lagoon). Partner 5 has also data concerning water quality of Odra river.

For the Odra lagoon several national and international programs have been performed in the past. The data on hydrodynamics and transport processes and for water quality are available at partner 1.

For the Ebro Delta plume and in the frame of two different projects -one European and the other national- several field campaigns were carried out in the Ebro estuary during 1996 and 1997. The experiments included measurements in three subdomains: a river-subdomain up to the salt-wedge (from 45 to 15 km from the sea), an estuarine subdomain up to the river mouth and a near-shore subdomain up to 15m water depth approximately. The experiments included offshore hydrodynamics, near-shore and river-plume dynamics, regional meteorology and topobathymetry by means of:

The water quality parameters measured in the river and estuarine subdomains were temperature, pH, redox, conductibility, transmittance, fluorescence, suspended matter, salinity, nutrients (as N, P, C and Si) plus laboratory analysis of several bio-geo-chemical variables as algae, phyto and zooplankton, etc.

Deliverables: Properly geared set-up of the regional coupled models..

Links: Necessary for all activities of all subtasks in 400 and 500.

Resources: Total (man months): 69

Activity 320: Preparation of initial values and boundary conditions for the operational simulation of the three areas.

Taskleader: IM

Partners involved: GKSS, UPC, VKI, IGUC

Duration: 24 months

Objective: To make parameter fields for initialisation and for boundary values of model runs available between project partners and external parties. Provide data from large scale models. Provide data from field campaigns, which are set up to provide the data for the selected scenarios from task 300 to provide all data beforehand to feed the data assimilation procedures and to run the forward integration by numerical models; to achieve a data set of optimal quality as the starting position of the operational simulations; hence, quality assurance, especially for the nutrient and the biological parameters is an essential part of these activities.

Methodology : Collect boundary and initial data fields in field campaigns and transfer them to the data base into agreed formats. To derive and optimise the algorithms relating water discharge to both the concentration of particulate matter and to a possible temporal variation in composition of the sediment load (see activity 325). Historical data will be used but in addition actual time series of in situ particle and aggregate sizes will be collected during the sampling of the actual data. This step is necessary because nutrients such as phosphate predominantly are adhered to the finest fractions of the suspended sediment load. Sampling frequencies will be chosen after model set-up and tuning and will be an optimum between model requirements and the resources available. Present knowledge suggests that the sometimes highly fluctuating nutrient and relevant biological parameters should ideally be measured several times per day to achieve realistic daily averages as starting values for the forward integration (see also activity 420). Standard methods and resources of the partners and water authorities given, this frequency can only be achieved with automatic analysers, a technique which will be applied by partner 1 in the Odra lagoon in an exploratory manner. After quality assurance the data will be documented and archived in the data bases.

Deliverables: Parameter fields from field campaigns for initialisation and for boundary conditions.

Links: Necessary for all activities of all subtasks in 400 and 500.

Resources: Total (man months): 98

The developed analysis and data management tools will be integrated and applied to simulate the selected scenarios defined under task 300.

to integrate and apply the developed analysis and data management tools; to generate maps of nutrients and related parameters, both for "actual" and "forecasted" situations on a regular basis.

Data basis are the six weeks "actual" and "forecasted" data sets (see task 320). They represent the optimal data situation. For each measuring date (typically 1 per day) the actual situation (continuous in space) will be generated applying three data assimilation techniques of increasing skill and complexity in parallel.

The task is subdivided into three activities. The tasks describe the work for the respective numbers in the detailed description of tasks in chapter 2.2 of the PIONEER proposal. The work for the proposal numbers 410 to 412 is described in activity 410 of this Technical Annex. The work for the proposal numbers 413 to 420.3 is described in activity 420 of this Technical Annex and the work for proposal number 430 is described in activity 430 of this Technical Annex.

Milestone: M400 ‘Nowcast’ and ‘forecast’ of the representative scenarios defined under task 300

Links: Required for all subtasks of task 500 and 600

Activity 410: Application of the different data assimilation techniques with increasing complexity to generate improved initial parameter fields for all three areas.

Taskleader: ARMINES

Partners involved: NERSC, GKSS,UPC, IM

Duration: 12 months

Objective: To use ‘simple’, geodynamical and geostatistical data assimilation techniques of increasing complexity, as developed under activity 120-122, for the analysis and consistency of environmental parameter fields in the three demonstration areas for the selected scenarios.

Methodology : Set up and run numerical modulation for the selected scenarios: ‘Nowcast’.

Deliverables: Best guess of the environmental status and space-time development for the selected scenarios.

Links: Input from: task 100

Necessary for all activities in task 500 and 600.

Resources: Total (man months): 33

Activity 420: Application of data assimilation techniques in the forecasting phase with increasing complexity for all three areas.

Taskleader: NERSC

Partners involved: ARMINES, GKSS, UPC, IM

Duration: 12 months

Objective: To use geodynamical and geostatistical data assimilation techniques of increasing complexity, developed under activity 120-122, for simulating the predictability of the development of environmental parameter fields in the three demonstration areas.

Methodology: Set up and run numerical models with assimilation techniques for the selected scenarios: ‘forecast’.

Deliverables: simulated forecasted parameter fields for the selected scenarios

Links: Necessary for tasks 500 and 600.

Resources: Total (man months): 23

Activity 430: Documentation of results

Taskleader: ARMINES

Partners involved: NERSC

Duration: 9 months

Objective: To document the analysis and the forecast and to assess the credibility and significance of the parameter fields derived by different assimilation techniques, developed under activity 120-122.

Methodology : Apply multivariate statistical methods to quantify the accuracy of the data sets.

Deliverables: Correlation confidence limits skill factors for the analysed parameter fields in the different regions.

Links: Necessary for task 500.

Resources: Total (man months): 23

In this task the results obtained by the different data assimilation methods will be validated. A quantification of the added value due to simpler or more complex methods will be given.. The tasks describe the work for task 500 in the detailed description of tasks in chapter 2.2 of the PIONEER proposal. The work is subdivided in three activities 510, 520, and 530, to take into account the different complexity of data assimilation schemes.

Milestone: M500 Assessment of received model results for the operational ‘Nowcast’ and ‘forecast’

Links: Required for task 600

Activity 510: Quality assessment for data assimilation methods from activity 120 (simple methods)

Taskleader: GKSS

Partners involved: ARMINES, NERSC, UPC, IM, IGUC, VKI

Duration: 6 months

Objective: To assess the overall quality of the data analysis and the ‘simple assimilation method’.

Methodology : Compare the methods to establish the field data and simulated data sets and generate quantified statistical quality parameters for the performance.

Deliverables: Correlation, confidence limits, skill factors for the analysed and forecasted parameter fields in the different regions.

Resources: Total (man months): 2

Activity 520: Quality assessment for methods from activity 121 (geostatistical methods)

Taskleader: ARMINES

Partners involved: GKSS, NERSC, UPC, IM, IGUC, VKI

Duration: 6 months

Objective: To assess the overall quality of the data analysis and to validate the added value gained by using the geostatistical data assimilation methods.

Methodology : Compare the methods to establish the field data and simulated data sets and generate quantified statistical quality parameters for the performance.

Deliverables: Correlation, confidence limits, skill factors for the analysed and forecasted parameter fields in the different regions.

Resources: Total (man months): 3

Activity 530: Quality assessment for data assimilation methods from task 122 (geodynamical methods)

Taskleader: NERSC

Partners involved: ARMINES, UPC, IM, IGUC, VKI

Duration: 6 months

Objective: To assess the overall quality of the data analysis.

Methodology: Compare the methods to establish the field data and simulated data sets and generate quantified statistical quality parameters for the performance.

Deliverables: Correlation, confidence limits, skill factors for the analysed and forecasted parameter fields in the different regions.

Resources: Total (man months): 3

In PIONEER special emphasis will be put in the dissemination and exploitation of the results. In general an efficient dissemination of results is envisaged by involving potential users to the project. These are:

• National and regional authorities with responsibilities in the coastal, fluvial and environmental fields (e.g. Department of Agriculture and Fishery and Department of Environment from Catalan Government, Spanish Ministry of Public Works, etc.)

• Local coastal authorities

• Representatives of the industrial, agricultural, fishing and touristic sectors.

Finally, the covering of the project by the press (TV, newspapers, etc.) will be promoted.

Three symposia combined with the half annual project meetings at the three different demonstration sites will be held in order to involve the potential end users in the developing phase of the pre-operational forecasting tool. In addition the scientific outcome of the project will be documented by presenting the results on international conferences and publishing in scientific journals. The task is subdivided in the two activities dissemination and exploitation. The tasks describe the work for the task 600 in the detailed description of tasks in chapter 2.2 of the PIONEER proposal

Milestones: M600A Symposium organised in the region of the Odra lagoon

M600B Symposium organised in the region of the Ebro river

M600C Symposium organised in the region of the Odra river

Task 600 is subdivided into two subtasks. In Activity 610 specific dissemination plans are described to involve interested third parties in the results of the project. Activity 620 describes the exploitation plans that are foreseen within PIONEER.

Activity 610: Dissemination: Involvement of potential end users

Taskleader: GKSS

Partners involved: UPC, IM, ARMINES, NERSC, UPC, IGUC, VKI

Duration: 36 months

Objective: The responsible local authorities, tourism organisations and commercial providers of marine technology will be informed on the project and especially in the demonstration performance. This is to promote the set up of an instrument for integrated coastal zone management.

Methodology: For each of the demonstration areas a symposium with regional governmental authorities will be organised. They will be combined with the half annual project meetings.

In addition the basic technical and the scientific results will be published in a series of papers in international peer-reviewed journals to promote a further global interest. The PIONEER project will be presented via their own WWW homepage.

During the pre-operational phase (Task 400) the capability of the system will be demonstrated to local authorities.

Finally, the covering of the project by the press (TV, newspapers, etc.) will be promoted.

Deliverable: PIONEER homepage, Conference contributions, press conferences, publications three symposia.

Resources: Total (man months): 30

Taskleader: GKSS

Partners involved: UPC, IM, ARMINES, NERSC, UPC, IGUC, VKI

Duration: 36 months

Objective: During the whole project and especially during the demonstration phase special emphasis is put on the development of a pre-operational system.

Methodology: The outcome of PIONEER is the creation of a pre-operational forecast system for water quality parameters, consisting of a combined model package. Once the methods developed and used in PIONEER have proven their skills there is a role for commercial companies, in order to validate the results towards a commercial product.

GKSS is in contact with a system manufacturer who will be continuously involved in the progress of the project. By the end of the project the outcome will be validated towards its market potential.

Although the model system will be built as a generic product there is need at the Ebro and at the Odra to implement such a tool for forecasts used by the fishing and shipping industry, especially in extreme water discharge cases as has been observed in July 1997. It is therefore recommended to the Polish and the German regional governmental bodies to use the developed tools for the two demonstration areas in operational forecasts.

Deliverables: Implementation plans for the Odra and Ebro estuaries, a general strategy for other estuarine and coastal areas.

Resources: Total (man months): 5

Table 2 : Allocation of resources per task and partner in man months

The project partners build a steering committee consisting of the Co-ordinator and the task leaders. This body is in close connection to the advisory board that will consult the scientific work.

Not withstandingany other provisions of this contract, the co-ordinator is responsible for the management of the project administratively. In addition the Co-ordinator is responsible for the quality control within the project. He is the interface to the European Commission and chairs the Scientific steering committee. Every task leader is in charge of its own task and must assure that the deliverables are transferred in time.

The diagram illustrates the management structure regarding main co-ordination, task responsibilities, and key activities.

The advisory board consists of external experts from science and management This group will join the relevant meetings if necessary, and advice the PIONEER consortium in order to develop a pre-operational system that can be used for coastal zone management purposes by the governmental authorities.

As no large field experiment is planned within PIONEER the data management is mainly focused on the documentation, quality control, and banking of data. During a short period additional water quality parameters for the Ebro area and the Odra Lagoon will be sampled. Quality assurance for all gathered data is an integral part of the generation of the sampled data set.

The data storage will be done according to the EU guide lines. The detailed data management is described in task 200, where the responsibilities are clarified.

All acquired bancable data will be stored in three data bases. The Odra Lagoon data base will be set up at GKSS, the Ebro data will be stored at UPC and the data from the Odra River will be held in a data base located at IM. By the end of the project the three data bases will be linked to make the information easily available. In addition all data acquired during the project will be made publicly available not later than 6 month after the end of the project or two years after their acquisition.

Model data will be archived at GKSS, UPC and IM and will publicly be available not later than 6 month after the end of the project or two years after their generation.

5.3 Meetings and workshops

The project will start with a kick-off meeting to discuss the scheduling of the tasks and the interactions of the partners. Further workshops will be held at six monthly intervals to discuss progress and to co-ordinate the details for the coming tasks.  At all meetings the advisory board of the external experts may be invited to participate. From the operational simulation phase on, interested representatives of regional governmental authorities will be invited to the project meetings.

In task 600 symposia for the three involved areas are planned with local governmental authorities and decision makers (see: chapter 4 ‘Detailed description of tasks’ of this Technical Annex).

One workshop per year will be made in co-ordination with the CEC and with other MAST III projects related to operational ocean forecasting.

Major milestones are defined as follows (completion month in parenthesis):

M100 (30): Source code of Interface to couple the different models incl. assimilation methods

completed subtasks: 111, 112, 113, 114, 120, 121, 122

M200A (6): Data base with historical data from the Odra lagoon (GKSS)

M200B (18): Data base with historical data from the Ebro river (UPC)

M200C (30): Data base with historical data from the Odra river (IM)

completed subtasks: 210, 220

M300 (24): Selection of representative scenarios.

completed subtasks: 310, 320

M400 (30): ‘Nowcast’ and ‘forecast’ of the representative scenarios defined in task 300.

completed subtasks: 410, 420

M500 (35): Assessment of received model results for the operational ‘Nowcast’ and ‘Forecast’

M600A (6): Symposium organised in the region of the Odra lagoon

M600B (18): Symposium organised in the region of the Ebro river

M600C (30): Symposium organised in the region of the Odra river

7. WORK PLANNING SCHEDULE

For the numerical models and especially for the data assimilation high performance computers are needed. The costs mentioned in the cost summary are to cover the CPU expenses on supercomputers.

In total there will be 7 project meetings around Europe. In general all institutes will participate with 2 people that are involved in the project.

In addition to the 21 KECU (2 experts and the coordinator of the project) needed for the regular project meetings, the two subcontractors of GKSS will need 7 kECU each for the meetings. For coordination and organisation of the three symposia planned within the project another 29 kECU are required. For the assistance in the organisation of common measurements and visits of measurement sites 3 kECU will be used.

UPC is strongly involved in the acquistion of data. It will cover the costs for the collection of existing data around the Ebro area and the travel costs that occur during some needed field campaigns. Especially the travel for coordination of measurements (permissions) with local authorities is necessary (14 kECU).

The extra travel money is needed to cover the expenses during the field campaigns in the Odra and Ebro area. Especially the travel for coordination of measurements (permissions) with local authorities is necessary. The installation of several sophisticated nutrient sensors causes longer stays for eventual maintenance (9 kECU).

The travel money will cover the costs for local data acquisition and for extra meetings within the modelling and assimilation group of PIONEER.

The travel money will cover the costs for local data acquisition and for extra meetings within the modelling and assimilation group of PIONEER.

ARMINES:

The additional travel money is to cover the expenses for the co-ordination of the assimilation with the partners.

UKBH:

year 1 Year 2 year 3 total Filters 1.5 1 0.5 3

Petri disks 0 0.5 0.5 1

Maintanance ISCO 1.5 1 0 2.5 Maintanence filte-

ring equipment 1 0.5 0.5 2 Maintanence

LISST-100 1 1 1 3

Running of

RCM 9 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.5

CAlibration spheres 1 1 1 3

Batteries 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.5

Installation of

ISCO samplers 4 4 0 8

Mobile connection 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.5

EDB 0 1.6 3.4 5

Transport case

LISST-100 0.5 0 0 0.5

Shipping 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.5

Water bottles 0.5 0.5 0 1

Others 1 1 1 3

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total 14 14.1 9.9 38

IM:

Equipment and Chemicals for water quality analysis (6 kECU), costs for maintenance of in situ equipment, heating systems and air conditioning for winter measurements in the Szczecin lagoon at two stations (9 kECU).

TU:

Equipment and Chemicals for water quality analysis (6 kECU), costs for maintenance of in situ equipment, heating systems and air conditioning for winter measurements in the Odra river at two stations (9 kECU).

.-Diskettes, photofilms, paper, etc. for data storage. 1.6

.-Consumables for sampling campaign

and chemical and biological analysis 12.4

(bottles; alcaline batteries; plastic bags; gasoline for water pump sampling; test tubes; polycarbonate, acetate and glass filters; tubes for the autoanalyzer; rechanges for the destiled water systems, rechargeables and chemicals for multparametric datasonde,:portable icebox, ice for it; sulfuric acid, ammonium, potassium antimonyl tartrate, ascorbic acid, ammonium heptamolybdate tetrahydrate; oxalic acid, acetone, phenol, 4-methyl-amyno-phenol sulphate, sodium sulphite, sodium hexafluoride, sodium nitroprusiate, trisodic citrate, sodium hydroxide, sodium hypochlorite, ammonium sulphate, sulphanylamide, chlorhydrique acid, cupper sulphate, ammonium chloride, N-1-naphtil-etilen-diamyne dihydrochloride, potassium nitrate, ammonia, sodium nitrite, cadmium, ether, calcium carbonate.)

UPC:

2 Personal Computers including communication software (7 kECU each). Communication set up for an online measurement station (18 kECU)

IM:

2 Personal Computers including communication software for online data communication (7 kECU each).

TU:

2 Personal Computers including communication software for on-line data communication (7 kECU each).

Because our university work in the european projects with marginal costs, the EU only pays 3/5 of the total costs of the equipment

.-Portable PC (to store the data of the datasonde). 3.5

.-DATASONDE HYDROLAB 4 and HYDOLAB Surveyor 4 24.9 Data Display with sensors to mesure in the field:

.-Depth

.-pH

.-Conductivity

.-Dissolved oxygen

.-ORP

.-T

.-PAR

.-Fluorescence

.-Turbidity

a cable of 100 m

.-Digital mycrophotograph camera system LEICA DC 100, for phytoplankton and bacterioplankton counts 8.3

.-Sedimentation Tramp (KC Research Equipment)

With 4 unities, rope and buoy

4.1

Total 40.8

as the EU pays only 3/5 of total costs for equipment the true total will be:

Total in the cost table 24

UPC:

Scuba diver for the field campaign at the Ebro Delta, logistic for the field campaign (rent of ship, rent of car for the transport of material to the field campaign, etc). Rent of specific equipment for the field campaign (GPS, Ecosonda)

IM:

Depth profiles at selected cross sections of the Swina river (11 kECU).

TU:

Depth profiles at selected cross sections of the Odra river ( 11 kECU).

UPV:

The costs include the rental costs for boats and vehicles for the field campaigns (1 period of 10 days a 2 kECU per day).

GKSS Forschungszentrum Geesthacht

Institut für Gewässerphysik

Max-Planck-Strasse

D-21502 Geesthacht

email: storch@gkss.de

email: rosenthal@gkss.de

email: guenther@gkss.de

email: wolff@gkss.de

UPC:

Dr. Joa Pau Sierra Tel: +34 93 4016467 Fax: +34 93 4017357

email: sierra@etseccpb.upc.es

Dr. Agustín Sánchez-A Tel: +34 93 4016468 Fax: +34 93 4017357

email: arcilla@etseccpb.upc.es

Dr. Xavier Gironella Tel: +34 93 4017824 Fax: +34 93 4017357

email: gironella@etseccpb.upc.es

Dr. Cesar Mösso Tel: + 34 93 4017392 Fax: +34 93 4017357

email: dmosso@etseccpb.upc.es

Dr. Enrique Movellan Tel: + 34 93 4017392 Fax: +34 93 4017357

email:dmovellan@etseccpb.upc.es

IGUC:

Assoc. professor Dr. Morten Pejrup Tel: +45 3532 2500 Fax: +45 3532 2501

email: mp@geogr.ku.dk

Assoc. professor Bent Hasholt Tel: +45 3532 2500 Fax: +45 3532 2501

email: bh@geogr.ku.dk

Mr. Thorbjoern Joost Andersen Tel: +45 3532 2500 Fax: +45 3532 2501

email: tja@@geogr.ku.dk

Mr. Ole Aarup Mikkelsen Tel: +45 3532 2500 Fax: +45 3532 2501

email: oam@@geogr.ku.dk

Ecological Modelling Center (EMC)

Agern Allé 5

DK- 2970 Hørsholm

Dr. Job Baretta Tel: +45 45 17 91 24 Fax : +45 45 76 25 67

email: baretta@dhi.dk

Dr. Hanneke Baretta-Bekker Tel: +45 45 17 91 44 Fax : +45 45 76 25 67

email: hbb@dhi.dk

Maritime Research Institute

Szczecin Branch

ul. Monte Cassino 18a

PL-70-467 Szczecin

Prof. Dr. Wladyslaw Buchholz Tel. +48 91 22 38 43 Fax: +48-91 22 38 43

email: wlad@marea.im.man.szczecin.pl

Dr. Ryszard Ewertowski Tel. +48 91 22 38 43 Fax: +48-91 22 38 43

e-mail: rewert@phys.amu.edu.pl

Dr.Jacek Cichocki Tel +48 91 22 35 69 Fax: +48-91 22 38 43

email: jacekc@marea.im.man.szczecin.pl

Dr.Dorota Dybkowska-Stefek Tel +48 91 22 35 69 Fax: +48-91 22 38 43

email: dorota@marea.im.man.szczecin.pl

Dr. Malgorzata Pluta Tel +48 91 22 35 69 Fax: +48-91 22 38 43

email: gosia@marea.im.man.szczecin.pl

Technical University

Architecture and Civil Engineering Faculty

Water Environment Engineering Department

Piastow 50

PL-70-310 Szczecin

Dr. Zbigniew Mrozinski Tel +48 91 449 45 01 Fax:+ 48 91 449 45 92

email: dorota@niagara.tuniv.szczecin.pl

Prof. Dr. Zygmunt Meyer Tel +48 91 449 43 71 Fax:+ 48 91 43 32 851

email: meyer@niagara.tuniv.szczecin.pl

Prof.Dr.Ryszard Coufal Tel +48 91 449 45 01 Fax:+ 48 91 43 32 851

email: coufal@niagara.tuniv.szczecin.p

Dorota Libront Tel +48 91 449 49 42 Fax:+ 48 91 449 45 92

email: dorota@niagara.tuniv.szczecin.pl

Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center

Edvard Griegsvei 3a

N-5037 Solheimsviken

Prof. Dr. Geir Evensen Tel: +47-55-29 72 88 Fax: +47-55-20 00 50

email: Geir.Evensen@nrsc.no

N.N.

Centre de Géostatistique

Ecole des Mines de Paris

35, rue Saint Honoré

F - 77305 Fontainebleau

Dr. Hans Wackernagel Tel: +33 1 64 69 47 60 Fax: +33 1 64 69 47 05

email: hans@cg.ensmp.fr

Julio González del Río Rams Tel: + 34-963877616 Fax: +34-9 63 87 76 18

email: jgonzrio@hma.upv.es

Miguel Rodilla Alamá Tel: + 34-963877616 Fax: +34-9 63 87 76 18

email: mrodilla@hma.upv.es

Enrique Quesada Fernández de la Puente

Tel: + 34-963877616 Fax: + 34-9 63 87 76 18

email: equesada@hma.upv.es

Salvado Cardona Navarrete Tel: + 34-966528460 Fax: + 34-9 66 52 84 09

email: scardona@iqn.upv.es

Juan Carlos Asensi Sempere Tel: + 34-963877806 Fax: + 34-9 63 87 78 09

email: jasensi@upvnet.upv.es

Arturo González del Río Rams Tel: +34-963877796 Fax: +34-9 63 87 73 59

email: agdelrio@dsic.upv.es

Danish Hydraulic Institute (DHI)

Ecological Modelling Centre (EMC)

Agern Allé 5

DK-2970 Hørsholm

Flemming Jakobsen Tel: +45 45 179 241 Fax: +45 45 179 200

email:flj@dhi.dk

Hans Jacob Vested Tel: +45 45 179 146 Fax: +45 45 179 200

email hjv@dhi.dk

John Johnsen Tel: +45 45 179 255 Fax: +45 45 179 200

email joj@dhi.dk

Nederlands Institut

voor Onderzoek der Zee

Department: Biological Oceanography

P.O. Box 59, 1790 AB Den Burg

NL-Texel

Dr. Piet Ruardij Tel: +31 222 - 369475 Fax: +31 222 - 319674 email: rua@nioz.nl